Although China has become a crucial swing factor in global commodity markets, it is not

the only driver. Its materials-intensive boom began in mid-2000 yet it was not until we

saw synchronised global growth in commodities demand in 2003 that commodity prices

spiked upwards. Leading indicators suggest that world economic growth is likely to ease

next year. The six-month change of the OECD leading indicator has dropped from a

peak of 7.8 in January to 2.6 currently, indicating a weaker growth outlook for the

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. In China, industrial

output growth rates have begun to ease, although growth remains impressive.